Tom Brady’s career against the spread


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He’s retired twice and a third time is still a possibility, but as of right now, Tom Brady is finished with the NFL and will go down as the greatest ever to play the quarterback position. He’s won seven Super Bowls, earning MVP in five of them. He’s been named MVP three times in his career and has passed for over 100,000 yards — 102,614 to be exact. With 737 total touchdowns to his name, there’s little doubt Brady is the greatest of all time, but how did he do against the spread throughout his career? You might be surprised to hear he doesn’t top the list.

Brady wraps up his career with an overall record of 215-158-8 (57.6%) against the spread (ATS), including playoff games. As an underdog, Brady finished 42-21-1 (66.7%) ATS. Those are very impressive figures but when you look at just the regular season, Brady was 190-136-7 ATS (58.3%), which trailed behind Joe Montana’s 101-63 ATS (61.6%). That is based on regular season games with a minimum of 125 starts. Still, if you knew very little about football and blindly wagered on Brady every single game throughout his career, you would have come out with a profit.

As the saying goes, “Good teams win, but great teams cover.” And Brady consistently covered, even on the biggest stage. He had a total of 10 Super Bowl appearances, winning as the underdog or covering as the favorite half the time. He lost as the favorite three times, and won but didn’t cover the spread twice. As a sixth-round pick in the 2000 NFL draft, some would say that Brady has been an underdog ever since he stepped foot into the league. But based on stats, Brady was the greatest underdog quarterback ever, finishing with a 41-21-2 ATS as an underdog. That means he covered the spread 66.1% of the time when betters had him as the underdog. That is the best winning percentage as an underdog for any quarterback with at least 30 starts in the Super Bowl era.

Postseason performance

Looking at just the postseason, Brady was 25-22-1 ATS (53.2%). He was 15-11-1 ATS (55.6%) at home in the playoffs, and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) as an underdog in the playoffs. As a double-digit favorite in the playoffs, Brady had a 3-3 ATS (50%). But perhaps the craziest stat throughout Brady’s career in relation to the postseason, in his last 19 seasons, Brady never entered the regular season with odds higher than 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. In fact, the NFL season started with Brady and his team as the betting favorite or co-favorite to win the Super Bowl nine times throughout his career. He only fulfilled that bet twice however, in Super Bowl LI and Super Bowl LIII.

tom brady's career against the spread

Brady spent most of his career as a Patriot in New England, but wrapped it up as a Buccaneer in Tampa Bay

Super Bowl LI

Brady was also a big reason why Super Bowl LI resulted in some of the craziest bets in the history of the NFL. As we all know, the Patriots were trailing (now infamously) 28-3 to the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter of the game. At the time, some sportsbook offered live betting odds of 16-to-1 for the Patriots to make a comeback and win the game. Needless to say, Brady’s comeback in that Super Bowl resulted in a huge profit for many bettors who followed the mantra, “Never bet against Brady.”

One last bet?

This is Brady’s second retirement, as he infamously retired in 2022 only to unretire mere months later. So needless to say, there is some doubt in people’s minds that Brady will once again put on a uniform sometime in the 2023 season, if there is a team that is truly “just a quarterback away.” From, here are some odds on Tom Brady’s 2023 team. Note, these odds are projected and not currently available on all betting sites or betting apps.

  • Stays retired: -1000 odds
  • Miami Dolphins: +1250 odds
  • San Francisco 49ers: +3000 odds
  • New England Patriots: +4000 odds
  • Field: +3500 odds

The G.O.A.T.

There was a time when people could argue that Tom Brady wasn’t the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. But now that he’s retired (again), looking back at his stats and we believe there is just no good argument denying him as being the greatest of all time.

He has 35 total career playoff wins and it becomes even more mind-numbing when you break down that stat. From age 24 to 36, Brady won 18 playoff games. From 37 to 45, he won 17 playoff games. So even if you decided to split his career, he’d have more playoff wins than any other quarterback. Joe Montana had 16 playoff wins, while Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Peyton Manning all had 14 each.

Some would say Tom Brady was the closest thing to a “sure bet” in the NFL over the last two decades. But there’s a whole generation of younger quarterbacks now to keep our eyes on. From Patrick Mahomes to Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts to Joe Burrow, it’s an exciting time to be an NFL fan.

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